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Feb 18, 2026
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LONG
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Meta has agreed to buy "millions" of Nvidia processors (Blackwell generation) over the next few years. Despite market fears of an "AI Bubble," the largest hyperscalers (Meta) are accelerating, not decelerating, their capex spend on compute. This validates the hardware revenue floor for Nvidia. Long the "pick and shovel" (NVDA) and the adopter with the deepest pockets (META). Regulatory scrutiny on AI dominance; potential over-ordering leading to future inventory corrections. |
Bloomberg Markets
Geneva Diplomacy: US-Iran Hail Progress in Nu...
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Feb 18, 2026
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WATCH
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Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has agreed to reopen buyout negotiations with Paramount (PARA) after Paramount raised its bid. The consolidation of legacy media is accelerating to compete with streaming giants. A bidding war or finalized deal provides immediate arbitrage opportunities. Watch for deal terms; this is a classic M&A arbitrage setup. Regulatory antitrust blocking; deal financing falling through. |
Bloomberg Markets
Geneva Diplomacy: US-Iran Hail Progress in Nu...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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President Macron is in India; India decided to "buy another 114 French-made fighter jets and several hundred missiles." This is a multi-billion dollar order confirming the "sovereignty" trend where nations hedge against US unreliability by buying European defense hardware. This directly benefits French/European defense contractors. LONG European Defense. Deal execution delays or political changes in France/India. |
Bloomberg Markets
Futures Slip Ahead of US Return; Iran-US Talk...
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Feb 17, 2026
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NEUTRAL
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Gold failed to stay above $5,000, selling off after a soft CPI print. However, it has rallied 50% in recent weeks. The asset is in a hyper-volatile state ($5,000 price tag implies extreme fiat debasement scenario in 2026). The immediate price action is "sell the news" on rate cuts, despite the long-term bullish driver of interest rate cuts. NEUTRAL short-term due to profit-taking volatility. Re-acceleration of inflation. |
Bloomberg Markets
Futures Slip Ahead of US Return; Iran-US Talk...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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Elliott Investment Management has built a >10% stake in Norwegian Cruise Line. Elliott is an aggressive activist. The explicit goal is to fix "underperformance" relative to rivals. Historically, Elliott's involvement leads to management changes, cost-cutting, or strategic reviews that unlock shareholder value in the short-to-medium term. LONG on the activist catalyst. Elliott fails to secure board seats or the turnaround plan is rejected by current management. |
Bloomberg Markets
US-Iran Nuclear Talks in Geneva; Trump Will B...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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US and Iran are holding indirect talks while simultaneously conducting military drills/buildups in the Strait of Hormuz. Russia-Ukraine talks are stalling with Russia demanding territory. The "Talk and Fight" dynamic creates asymmetric upside for volatility. While talks are happening (dovish), the military buildup (hawkish) ensures that any diplomatic failure results in an immediate kinetic spike. JPY and Gold are explicitly cited as capturing "haven plays" amidst this uncertainty. LONG defensive assets as a hedge against negotiation failures in Geneva. A surprise diplomatic breakthrough (Peace Deal) would crush the geopolitical premium in Oil and Gold. |
Bloomberg Markets
US-Iran Nuclear Talks in Geneva; Trump Will B...
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Feb 16, 2026
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WATCH
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Alibaba (BABA) was added to and then removed from a Pentagon list. The US is deliberating on adding the "memory chip industry" to restriction lists. The regulatory environment for Chinese tech and Asian chipmakers is highly volatile and subject to "internal deliberations within the White House." This creates binary risk (sanction vs. no sanction). WATCH. Avoid taking large directional bets until the "much-awaited meeting between President Trump and President Xi" in April. Sudden inclusion on the Pentagon list causing a liquidity event. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bonds Rise on Rate-Cut Bets; Gold Dips Below ...
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Feb 16, 2026
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SHORT
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Japan's GDP missed estimates, which "underscores the case for the Prime Minister's proactive spending policies" (The Takaichi Trade). "Proactive spending" implies fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy. This macro backdrop historically weakens the currency (Yen) while boosting equity markets (Nikkei). SHORT JPY (or LONG USD/JPY). Bank of Japan intervenes aggressively to hike rates despite weak GDP. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bonds Rise on Rate-Cut Bets; Gold Dips Below ...
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Feb 16, 2026
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LONG
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There has been a "record ramp up in industrial metals." Major miners like BHP are reporting earnings this week against a backdrop of surging metal prices. LONG miners heading into earnings due to favorable commodity pricing. Disappointing guidance on production costs or demand from China (which is closed for Lunar New Year). |
Bloomberg Markets
Rubio Warns Europe & Warner Bros. Mulls New P...
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Feb 16, 2026
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NEUTRAL
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Gold has slipped below $5,000/oz, down about 1% on the day. Traders are using the benign inflation print to "trim some of the profits." The inflation hedge trade is unwinding slightly as inflation cools. NEUTRAL/WATCH. The asset is seeing profit-taking after a massive run-up (to $5k). Geopolitical escalation (Russia/Ukraine) could drive safe-haven flows back in. |
Bloomberg Markets
Rubio Warns Europe & Warner Bros. Mulls New P...
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Feb 16, 2026
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SHORT
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The US is weighing a plan to roll back Aluminum and Steel tariffs, which currently sit around an effective rate of 40%. Tariffs artificially prop up domestic prices for US producers (like Nucor). Removing them introduces cheaper foreign competition, crushing margins for domestic US steel and aluminum mills. SHORT US domestic metal producers (NUE, X, AA) on the threat of lost pricing power. The report is unconfirmed or the rollback is smaller than expected. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI 'Scare Trade' Takes Hold; Talabat FY Earni...
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Feb 16, 2026
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SHORT
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The "AI Scare Trade" has expanded from software to physical industries. The US Trucking Index and Logistics sector saw massive price drops, driven by the perception that AI tools will disrupt their business models. The market is currently pricing in "AI displacement" risk. If a sector is viewed as an "AI Victim" (like SaaS last week, Logistics this week), capital flees rapidly regardless of immediate earnings, creating downward momentum. SHORT / AVOID sectors currently in the crosshairs of the "AI Scare" narrative (Logistics, Trucking, Legacy SaaS). The selloff may be an overreaction/panic selling, presenting a value trap if fundamentals remain strong. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI 'Scare Trade' Takes Hold; Talabat FY Earni...
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